RURAL RUMINATIONS
THE GOOD OLD COLD WAR
OCTOBER 2, 2022
By Haviland Smith
For any American alive before World War II, the world today, almost a century later, is extraordinarily different from the preceding hundred years. In fact, the world today would almost certainly be far better off if it were playing by the rules that governed the Cold War.
The last hundred years, as violent as they often were, did not threaten the existence of the planet, despite having produced the Great Depression, World War II, the Korean War, the Viet Nam War, our numerous involvements in the Middle East and, at the end of WW II, the Cold War.
In the years after World War II, the United States was guided generally by containment — the policy of keeping communism from spreading beyond the countries already under its influence. The policy applied to a world divided by the Cold War, a struggle between the United States and the Soviet Union for the purpose of gaining military and, ultimately, political advantage.
Strangely, it would seem that the Cold War, given the existence of the atomic bomb, saved a terribly divided world from self-destruction. It was probably the very existence and use of the bomb at Nagasaki and Hiroshima that, despite its subsequent development by other countries, including most importantly, the USSR, turned the world against its later use.
And that is precisely what happened. Quite apart from a general, world-wide rejection of atomic weapons, the Cold War years included many provisions by bomb owners that absolutely ruled out their use.
As the opposing sides in the Cold War got further and further into it, cooler heads on both sides came to realize that the bomb had changed everything. If used, it could and would cause the total destruction of all the participants. This reality led to the use of the term MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction). This theory assumed that each superpower had enough nuclear weaponry to destroy the other. If one superpower attempted a first strike on the other, they themselves would also be destroyed. Every sentient superpower leader in the world understood very clearly that any first user of an atomic bomb would be destroyed in retaliation. Strangely, nuclear weapons stopped the Cold War from erupting into an actual war.
Later, in 1989 and 1990, the Berlin Wall came down, borders opened, and free elections ousted Communist regimes everywhere in Eastern Europe. In late 1991 the Soviet Union itself dissolved into its component republics. The Iron Curtain was lifted, and the Cold War came to an end.
The USSR became Russia and was divided into its component parts. Most of the national minorities that had been a part of the USSR suddenly became independent countries. From a nationalist point of view, Russia was led by a weak Boris Yeltsin. Nevertheless, nationalism prevailed, and Vladimir Putin succeeded him. Putin has overseen the devolution of Russia backward toward the geographic realities of the USSR and Imperial Russia. He has openly stated that his goal is to reassemble that reality and Russia has started with the invasion of Ukraine.
The problem for both Putin and the rest of the world is that he hasn’t done very well. The Ukrainians have proved to be a far stronger opponent that Putin had wished or anticipated - and Russia the exact opposite. This has
led Putin to some statements and implications that Russia would use non-conventional weapons including tactical nuclear if the struggle did not begin to favor Russian forces.
Therein lies the issue: Most western experts believe the Russians will not reach their goals in Ukraine. Putin is driven by his own notions of a greater Russia and by an ego which apparently is largely immune against international common sense and the influence of any of his more moderate colleagues.
If the Cold War, even with all its negative aspects, existed today, the leader of Russia would not think of using atomic weapons, much less mention them, realizing that MAD was still very much in effect and could lead to the annihilation of his homeland.
Haviland Smith is a long-retired CIA operations officer and Station Chief who worked primarily against the Soviets and their satellites during the Cold War